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Find out more Prev. Article Next Article Table of Contents Article Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model * Abstract * HTMLFull Text HTML * PDFHi-Res PDF[5369 KB] * PDFPDF w/ Links[1569 KB] * Figures * Citing Articles Your current credentials do not allow retrieval of the full text. Purchase the full-text Cart * PDF/HTML, figures/images, references and tables, (where available) PDF Ibrahim Sami Nashawi*/-, Adel Malallah/- and Mohammed Al-Bisharah/= /- Department of Petroleum Engineering, College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University, P.O. BOX 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait /= Kuwait Oil Company, P.O. Box 9758, Ahmadi 61008, Kuwait Energy Fuels, 2010, 24 (3), pp 1788-1800 DOI: 10.1021/ef901240p Publication Date (Web): February 4, 2010 Copyright (c) 2010 American Chemical Society *To whom correspondence should be addressed. Telephone: +3 965 24987570. Fax: +3 965 24836058. E-mail: is.nashawi@ku.edu.kw. CASSection: Fossil Fuels, Derivatives, and Related Products Abstract The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically plunged to less than $50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning. Even though forecasting should be handled with extreme caution, it is always desirable to look ahead as far as possible to make an intellectual judgment on the future supplies of crude oil. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model to predict world crude oil supply with better accuracy than the existing models. Even though our approach originates from Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. As opposed to Hubbert single-cycle model, our model has more than one cycle depending on the historical oil production trend and known oil reserves. The presented method is a viable tool to predict the peak oil production rate and time. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data are available. The analysis of 47 major oil producing countries estimates the world's ultimate crude oil reserve by 2140 BSTB and the remaining recoverable oil by 1161 BSTB. The world production is estimated to peak in 2014 at a rate of 79 MMSTB/D. OPEC has remaining reserve of 909 BSTB, which is about 78% of the world reserves. OPEC production is expected to peak in 2026 at a rate of 53 MMSTB/D. On the basis of 2005 world crude oil production and current recovery techniques, the world oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%. View: Full Text HTML | Hi-Res PDF | PDF w/ Links Citing Articles View all 13 citing articles Citation data is made available by participants in CrossRef's Cited-by Linking service. For a more comprehensive list of citations to this article, users are encouraged to perform a search in SciFinder. This article has been cited by 2 ACS Journal articles (2 most recent appear below). * Cover Image Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production Ken B. Anderson and James A. Conder Energy & Fuels2011 25 (4), 1578-1584 * Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production Ken B. Anderson and James A. Conder Energy & Fuels2011 25 (4), 1578-1584 Multicyclic Hubbert analysis of resource production, especially as it relates to forecasting future petroleum production, has received significant traction in scientific and public circles. Although in some cases this technique can be a valuable tool for ... Abstract | HTMLFull Text HTML | PDFHi-Res PDF | PDFPDF w/ Links * Cover Image The Emergence of Renewable and Sustainable Polymers Patrick B. SmithGregory F. Payne 2011 (), 1-10 * The Emergence of Renewable and Sustainable Polymers Patrick B. SmithGregory F. Payne 2011 (), 1-10 These are exciting times for biofuels and renewable chemicals! A sense of urgency is driving a frenzy of activity on both research and commercialization fronts. Presciently, the ACS selected "Chemistry for a Sustainable World" as the theme for the Spring ... 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Learn more at www.cas.org * Get Reference Detail * Get Cited * Get Citing Explore by: [ ] Author of this Article [ ] Any Author [ ] Research Topic -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [_____________________] [ Search ] Last * ________________ First ________________ Middle ________________ [ Search ] Topic * ________________ [ ] Patents only search [ Search ] History * Published In Issue March 18, 2010 * Article ASAPFebruary 04, 2010 * Received: October 29, 2009 Revised: December 31, 2009 Recommend & Share * Share on ACS NetworkACS Network * Add to FacebookFacebook * Tweet ThisTweet This * Add to CiteULikeCiteULike * Add to NewsvineNewsvine * Digg ThisDigg This * Add to DeliciousDelicious Related Content * Pyrolysis of Wood/Biomass for Bio-oil: [IMG] A Critical ReviewEnergy & Fuels * Pyrolysis of Wood/Biomass for Bio-oil: A Critical Review Dinesh Mohan, Charles U. Pittman, Jr., and Philip H. 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